STATE OF EMERGENCY REDUX - 09/24/08 @ 13:46
State of Emergency Redux----
Realtime fiction screenplay by James C. L'Angelle
WGA west reg.# xxxxxx
FADE IN:
FRENCH QUARTER, NIGHT--Usual crowd of tourists, locals, workers, police, others. WORKER#1 is removing plywood from windows at one business from Hurricane Gustav; next to him at another business, WORKER#2 is placing plywood on windows for Hurricane Ike.
WORKER#2
You should just leave that plywood up, there's another hurricane on the way.
WORKER#1 (runs cordless drill)
Baloney! The only blowhard around here lately has been from some politician promising the "storm of the century". The boss is going to go broke and fire me if we don't make some money this month.
As WORKERS continue, STREET VENDOR passes by with a bag in his hand and a bunch of buttons pinned on him.
VENDOR (barking loudly)
Get yer "I Like Ike" buttons here, ony three bucks. "I Like Ike" buttons, going fast!
WORKER#2 stops the vendor.
WORKER#2
Hey there, let me see one of those.
VENDOR hands button to WORKER#2. Closeup of button shows image of Dwight D. Eisenhower superimposed below an American flag with a red, white and blue trim around it. WORKER#2 fishes into a pocket, produces three dollars, hands it to VENDOR. As he does so, a small crowd gathers; some intoxicated TOURISTS, LOCALS and PARENTS with KIDS.
KID#1
Mommy, are we going to have to live in our car again over in Mississippi?
MOMMY#1
We're not going anywhere this time, I don't care what the Mayor says. You're not going to miss any school. Do you want to end up like these drunks?
MOMMY#1 sticks nose into air and drags KID#1 down the street. VENDOR goes over to KID#2, leers over.
VENDOR
Hey kid, you wanna buy a "Storm of the Century" button? I only got a couple left.
KID#2 starts to cry and MOMMY#2 sticks her nose into air, drags KID#2 down the street.
DRUNK#1
Who the Hell that woman think she is? I happen to be a valleydicturian!
DRUNK#2
Yeah, with a heavy emphases on "valley". C'mon, let's get over to Pat O'Brien's. The only hurricane I like is the kind I can drink!
CROWD dissolves, VENDOR barks his way down the street and WORKERS continue with their plywood.
EXT. World famous Pat O'Brien's. The usual CROWD waits outside to get in.
TOURIST#1 (loudly)
I don't care what anybody says about a "state of emergency". I played Hell to get a week off from work to come down here to party!
Disgruntled voices in the CROWD rumble in agreement.
TOURIST#2
Me too! So what's the deal? (hollers to DOORMAN) Hey, Doorman? We gonna have to stand here all night?
DOORMAN
So what's yer hurry, Ike ain't gonna be here til Thursday.
CROWD grumbles and laughs at the same time.
INT. Pat Obrien's. The bar is standing room only, the patio tables are all full and MONIQUE sings "House of the Rising Sun" onstage in front of small quartet.
MONIQUE
I got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train. I'm goin' back to New Orleans to wear that ball and chain.
Over at the overcrowded bar, TIM SOLDIER of the Recon News Agency, waits patiently as the BARTENDER mixes drinks. TOURISTS and LOCALS are pushy and anxious as news of yet another hurricane "state of emergency" has reached the world famous French Quarter bar.
LOCAL #1
I just got all my plywood and shutters taken down and I'm not putting it all back up.
LOCAL#2
Hey Bartender, you're going easy on the ice. How about some more.
BARTENDER (handing drinks to SOLDIER)
Sorry, no can do. We got an ice shortage here in town.
LOCAL#1
Well doesn't that beat all. World famous Pat O'Brien's and no ice.
SOLDIER (walking off with drinks)
You could be in Haiti right now.
LOCAL#1 (indignant to SOLDIER)
So who ask you to butt in anyway?
BARTENDER (diffusing the crisis brings more ice to LOCAL#1)
Hey, don't be ragging on my paying customers. Here's some more ice.
SOLDIER takes drinks, maneuvers through standing room only CROWD at bar, lands at table near stage where HECTOR LOPEZ, also of the Recon News Agency, sits with ROSA VASQUEZ, sister of fugitive drug-runner RENALDO.Placing drinks on table, SOLDIER takes a seat.
SOLDIER (sipping drink)
Gotta say one thing for this crowd tonight. They all show a genuine lack of interest in the new state of emergency issued by the Governor's office.
ROSA
Can't blame them either, it certainly looks like the politicians and emergency personnel cried wolf on Gustav.
HECTOR
They got "goosed-off" alright; now they about ready to get "ike'd".
ROSA and SOLDIER laugh. ROSA's cellphone rings, she gets up and goes to a quiet corner of the patio.
HECTOR
This sure beats sitting around in that RV park at the Cape in Florida waiting for Bin Raman's bunch to do sabotage.
SOLDIER
For once , I'll agree with you on a non-editorial level, Hector. Let's hope we all get "ike'd" and don't have to go anywhere this time.
HECTOR and SOLDIER toast glasses and drink as ROSA returns from the patio corner.
ROSA
That was a contact of Renaldo's here in the US. He's told me that Rodriguez is in town.
SOLDIER
Colonel Rodriguez of Cuban intelligence?
ROSA
He arrived at the airport this morning, he's here to discuss an important political matter with me. And, he requires your presence.
SOLDIER
My good friend, Colonel Rodriguez.
HECTOR
Right, Tim. He's here to pin a medal on you for saving Cuba from Al Qaeda after that breakout at Camp Delta during Hurricane Gustav.
ROSA
Come on now, let's hear what he has to say.
SOLDIER
OK, Rosa. You're the boss.
MONIQUE finishes her set and the HOST arrives at the microphone.
HOST
Let's have a big round of applause for Monique.
AUDIENCE applauds loudly but is interrupted by HECKLER
HECKLER (loudly and drunk)
Say, Boss? You gonna keep the joint open for Ike?
HOST
This isn't a "joint". It's world famous Pat O'Brien's. There have been no plans as of yet for closing for Hurricane Ike.
HECKLER
Bull, the Mayor will close the Quarter and you'll all run outta here like chickens!
HOST gives a nod to BARTENDERS who come over the bar equipped with blackjacks, grab the HECKLER, he puts up a fight, they thump him a couple of times and drag him out a convenient exit. BAND onstage plays as business returns to normal.
HECTOR
That drunk's got a point. Nobody is too anxious right now to board up the windows and bail out again.
ROSA
So what's their choice, drown like they did over in Haiti?
HECTOR
I'm just saying that the agencies have come a long way since Katrina and maybe they ought to try to ride one of these things out instead of displacing everybody out of state.
SOLDIER
I agree. State of Emergency doesn't imply contraflow as a given. It wouldn't hurt the agencies to deploy then utilize the effective measures like curfew and safety shelters for crowd control.
ROSA
One thing for certain; "goosed-off" hit on a three day weekend so all that really happened was LSU had to move their kickoff up a few hours. This time, Ike's coming in midweek and people are already broke from leaving town last week, buying food, gas and hotels. They're not going to go for packing up and leaving again.
SOLDIER
Rosa, you say the word when you want to see Rodriguez.
ROSA
I'm in no hurry.
They sit and drink as the CROWD gets rowdy and MONIQUE returns to the stage amid applause.
EXT. 200 miles east of the Florida Straits and north of Cuba. 17,000 ton container ship "El Yunque" is caught in a vicious squall west of the leading edge of Hurricane Ike. Large waves pound across the deck and the ship is rolling and pitching. Chains on some topside containers break and the cargo skids off the deck into the churning water.
INT. PILOT HOUSE. CREW MEMBERS struggle to keep vessel on course as CAPTAIN and OTHERS hover over charts that are sliding across the top of the navigator's table.
CAPTAIN
Hadn't expected it to be so rough this far ahead of the storm, lucky we left San Juan on Friday.
NAVIGATOR
Maybe we ought to put into port on Cuba's north coast.
MATE
Last time we did that, the Cubans confiscated the cargo. The company lost a fortune.
CAPTAIN
We're not stopping, we get out of this squall we'll turn north and put into Miami before going on to Jacksonville.
CAPTAIN goes over to RADIOMAN and issues him an order.
CAPTAIN
Contact the mainland. Tell them we're in a bit of trouble and will try to port in Miami. Also let them know that Ike means business. I don't care what the Saffir-Simpson scale has to say about the category. I've been out here on the high seas a long time and we're in for it.
RADIOMAN
Aye, aye, Captain.
EXT. French Quarter--A group of local businessmen has gathered in the street juyst below hotel where HECTOR and SOLDIER are staying and are discussing their options. SOLDIER is out on the patio listening.
BUSINESSMAN#1
Well, Ike missed the Keys and turned south into Cuba. I say it isn't going to hit New Orleans.
BUSINESSMAN#2
I'm not going to board up and run. I'm going broke, the tourists have all gone home and won't come back unless they know we're going to stay open.
BUSINESSMAN#3
I'm with you. We need to let the city officials know we're noy going to take these states of emergency seriously unless they can provide proof the hurricane is actually going to hit.
BUSINESSMAN#4
Well, if the hotels stay open, I'm staying open!
BUSINESSMEN all mumble and agree as SOLDIER goes back into room where HECTOR watches local news coverage.
SOLDIER
We got anarchy in the streets.
HECTOR
We got anarchy on the tube too.
On television, local and state officials all disagree over the best course of action as REPORTER does updtae.
REPORTER (on TV)
Word out of the Governor's office today is the state of emergency will remain in place until Ike has cleared the Gulf. However, the Mayor doesn't agree and cites pressure from local school boards, parents and business operators to keep the city open. There's also some question as to just when and where the federal government will commit assets since Ike has proven to be a difficult storm to project. It was supposed to move up the Keys first, then instead it was supposed to hit the northern coast of Cuba. Instead, it cut directly across the island late Sunday and is now below Cuba.
SOLDIER--
So what are the odds that Ike will hit New Orleans?
HECTOR
You asking me, the weather guru?
SOLDIER
Think about it, we've made all the wrong moves thus far trying to anticipate landfall. And everybody is trying to outguess Mother Nature. But the general consensus is that it won't be New Orleans. We have a news website, check the recent visitors and see where most of the traffic is coming from.
HECTOR goes over to a PC on the table, brings up the Recon News website statistics analyzer, looks over the stats for the past few days.
SOLDIER
Do a grid and run the visits from New Orleans as opposed to, say, Miami/Key West and Houston. Let's get what the collective instinct of the people output onto a chart.
HECTOR brings up a spreadsheet, begins to tally in the visitor stats.
HECTOR
I'm going to break it down even further by business, government agency and just regular server from the surfer at home on a personal computer.
A few minutes later, HECTOR has compiled some impressive data.
HECTOR
Looks like we're pulling more traffic from Houston than from New Orleans on the business side and more from the school districts in Louisiana.
HECTOR hands several printed out spreadsheets to SOLDIER, he looks them over.
SOLDIER
I expected that. It seems that if there was a doubt as to where to place the relief assets, then it would be wise to get power generating equipment in and around necessary facilities like oil refineries and gas stations. And the kids can't miss a day of school, so if there's contraflow, some kind of arrangement should be made so teach can keep class up and running at the evac shelter.
HECTOR
Right. And look at the problems that came up over at the wastewater plants. All of those kinds of places need to be targeted for emergency gear.
SOLDIER
Talk about hunches, Houston is far more vulnerable than New Orleans, so...
HECTOR
So tell me it ain't true, Soldier. We're not going to Houston.
SOLDIER grins, takes data out onto patio and listens as BUSINESSMEN ponder their course of action out on the street.
THE END--
Realtime fiction screenplay by James C. L'Angelle
WGA west reg.# xxxxxx
FADE IN:
FRENCH QUARTER, NIGHT--Usual crowd of tourists, locals, workers, police, others. WORKER#1 is removing plywood from windows at one business from Hurricane Gustav; next to him at another business, WORKER#2 is placing plywood on windows for Hurricane Ike.
WORKER#2
You should just leave that plywood up, there's another hurricane on the way.
WORKER#1 (runs cordless drill)
Baloney! The only blowhard around here lately has been from some politician promising the "storm of the century". The boss is going to go broke and fire me if we don't make some money this month.
As WORKERS continue, STREET VENDOR passes by with a bag in his hand and a bunch of buttons pinned on him.
VENDOR (barking loudly)
Get yer "I Like Ike" buttons here, ony three bucks. "I Like Ike" buttons, going fast!
WORKER#2 stops the vendor.
WORKER#2
Hey there, let me see one of those.
VENDOR hands button to WORKER#2. Closeup of button shows image of Dwight D. Eisenhower superimposed below an American flag with a red, white and blue trim around it. WORKER#2 fishes into a pocket, produces three dollars, hands it to VENDOR. As he does so, a small crowd gathers; some intoxicated TOURISTS, LOCALS and PARENTS with KIDS.
KID#1
Mommy, are we going to have to live in our car again over in Mississippi?
MOMMY#1
We're not going anywhere this time, I don't care what the Mayor says. You're not going to miss any school. Do you want to end up like these drunks?
MOMMY#1 sticks nose into air and drags KID#1 down the street. VENDOR goes over to KID#2, leers over.
VENDOR
Hey kid, you wanna buy a "Storm of the Century" button? I only got a couple left.
KID#2 starts to cry and MOMMY#2 sticks her nose into air, drags KID#2 down the street.
DRUNK#1
Who the Hell that woman think she is? I happen to be a valleydicturian!
DRUNK#2
Yeah, with a heavy emphases on "valley". C'mon, let's get over to Pat O'Brien's. The only hurricane I like is the kind I can drink!
CROWD dissolves, VENDOR barks his way down the street and WORKERS continue with their plywood.
EXT. World famous Pat O'Brien's. The usual CROWD waits outside to get in.
TOURIST#1 (loudly)
I don't care what anybody says about a "state of emergency". I played Hell to get a week off from work to come down here to party!
Disgruntled voices in the CROWD rumble in agreement.
TOURIST#2
Me too! So what's the deal? (hollers to DOORMAN) Hey, Doorman? We gonna have to stand here all night?
DOORMAN
So what's yer hurry, Ike ain't gonna be here til Thursday.
CROWD grumbles and laughs at the same time.
INT. Pat Obrien's. The bar is standing room only, the patio tables are all full and MONIQUE sings "House of the Rising Sun" onstage in front of small quartet.
MONIQUE
I got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train. I'm goin' back to New Orleans to wear that ball and chain.
Over at the overcrowded bar, TIM SOLDIER of the Recon News Agency, waits patiently as the BARTENDER mixes drinks. TOURISTS and LOCALS are pushy and anxious as news of yet another hurricane "state of emergency" has reached the world famous French Quarter bar.
LOCAL #1
I just got all my plywood and shutters taken down and I'm not putting it all back up.
LOCAL#2
Hey Bartender, you're going easy on the ice. How about some more.
BARTENDER (handing drinks to SOLDIER)
Sorry, no can do. We got an ice shortage here in town.
LOCAL#1
Well doesn't that beat all. World famous Pat O'Brien's and no ice.
SOLDIER (walking off with drinks)
You could be in Haiti right now.
LOCAL#1 (indignant to SOLDIER)
So who ask you to butt in anyway?
BARTENDER (diffusing the crisis brings more ice to LOCAL#1)
Hey, don't be ragging on my paying customers. Here's some more ice.
SOLDIER takes drinks, maneuvers through standing room only CROWD at bar, lands at table near stage where HECTOR LOPEZ, also of the Recon News Agency, sits with ROSA VASQUEZ, sister of fugitive drug-runner RENALDO.Placing drinks on table, SOLDIER takes a seat.
SOLDIER (sipping drink)
Gotta say one thing for this crowd tonight. They all show a genuine lack of interest in the new state of emergency issued by the Governor's office.
ROSA
Can't blame them either, it certainly looks like the politicians and emergency personnel cried wolf on Gustav.
HECTOR
They got "goosed-off" alright; now they about ready to get "ike'd".
ROSA and SOLDIER laugh. ROSA's cellphone rings, she gets up and goes to a quiet corner of the patio.
HECTOR
This sure beats sitting around in that RV park at the Cape in Florida waiting for Bin Raman's bunch to do sabotage.
SOLDIER
For once , I'll agree with you on a non-editorial level, Hector. Let's hope we all get "ike'd" and don't have to go anywhere this time.
HECTOR and SOLDIER toast glasses and drink as ROSA returns from the patio corner.
ROSA
That was a contact of Renaldo's here in the US. He's told me that Rodriguez is in town.
SOLDIER
Colonel Rodriguez of Cuban intelligence?
ROSA
He arrived at the airport this morning, he's here to discuss an important political matter with me. And, he requires your presence.
SOLDIER
My good friend, Colonel Rodriguez.
HECTOR
Right, Tim. He's here to pin a medal on you for saving Cuba from Al Qaeda after that breakout at Camp Delta during Hurricane Gustav.
ROSA
Come on now, let's hear what he has to say.
SOLDIER
OK, Rosa. You're the boss.
MONIQUE finishes her set and the HOST arrives at the microphone.
HOST
Let's have a big round of applause for Monique.
AUDIENCE applauds loudly but is interrupted by HECKLER
HECKLER (loudly and drunk)
Say, Boss? You gonna keep the joint open for Ike?
HOST
This isn't a "joint". It's world famous Pat O'Brien's. There have been no plans as of yet for closing for Hurricane Ike.
HECKLER
Bull, the Mayor will close the Quarter and you'll all run outta here like chickens!
HOST gives a nod to BARTENDERS who come over the bar equipped with blackjacks, grab the HECKLER, he puts up a fight, they thump him a couple of times and drag him out a convenient exit. BAND onstage plays as business returns to normal.
HECTOR
That drunk's got a point. Nobody is too anxious right now to board up the windows and bail out again.
ROSA
So what's their choice, drown like they did over in Haiti?
HECTOR
I'm just saying that the agencies have come a long way since Katrina and maybe they ought to try to ride one of these things out instead of displacing everybody out of state.
SOLDIER
I agree. State of Emergency doesn't imply contraflow as a given. It wouldn't hurt the agencies to deploy then utilize the effective measures like curfew and safety shelters for crowd control.
ROSA
One thing for certain; "goosed-off" hit on a three day weekend so all that really happened was LSU had to move their kickoff up a few hours. This time, Ike's coming in midweek and people are already broke from leaving town last week, buying food, gas and hotels. They're not going to go for packing up and leaving again.
SOLDIER
Rosa, you say the word when you want to see Rodriguez.
ROSA
I'm in no hurry.
They sit and drink as the CROWD gets rowdy and MONIQUE returns to the stage amid applause.
EXT. 200 miles east of the Florida Straits and north of Cuba. 17,000 ton container ship "El Yunque" is caught in a vicious squall west of the leading edge of Hurricane Ike. Large waves pound across the deck and the ship is rolling and pitching. Chains on some topside containers break and the cargo skids off the deck into the churning water.
INT. PILOT HOUSE. CREW MEMBERS struggle to keep vessel on course as CAPTAIN and OTHERS hover over charts that are sliding across the top of the navigator's table.
CAPTAIN
Hadn't expected it to be so rough this far ahead of the storm, lucky we left San Juan on Friday.
NAVIGATOR
Maybe we ought to put into port on Cuba's north coast.
MATE
Last time we did that, the Cubans confiscated the cargo. The company lost a fortune.
CAPTAIN
We're not stopping, we get out of this squall we'll turn north and put into Miami before going on to Jacksonville.
CAPTAIN goes over to RADIOMAN and issues him an order.
CAPTAIN
Contact the mainland. Tell them we're in a bit of trouble and will try to port in Miami. Also let them know that Ike means business. I don't care what the Saffir-Simpson scale has to say about the category. I've been out here on the high seas a long time and we're in for it.
RADIOMAN
Aye, aye, Captain.
EXT. French Quarter--A group of local businessmen has gathered in the street juyst below hotel where HECTOR and SOLDIER are staying and are discussing their options. SOLDIER is out on the patio listening.
BUSINESSMAN#1
Well, Ike missed the Keys and turned south into Cuba. I say it isn't going to hit New Orleans.
BUSINESSMAN#2
I'm not going to board up and run. I'm going broke, the tourists have all gone home and won't come back unless they know we're going to stay open.
BUSINESSMAN#3
I'm with you. We need to let the city officials know we're noy going to take these states of emergency seriously unless they can provide proof the hurricane is actually going to hit.
BUSINESSMAN#4
Well, if the hotels stay open, I'm staying open!
BUSINESSMEN all mumble and agree as SOLDIER goes back into room where HECTOR watches local news coverage.
SOLDIER
We got anarchy in the streets.
HECTOR
We got anarchy on the tube too.
On television, local and state officials all disagree over the best course of action as REPORTER does updtae.
REPORTER (on TV)
Word out of the Governor's office today is the state of emergency will remain in place until Ike has cleared the Gulf. However, the Mayor doesn't agree and cites pressure from local school boards, parents and business operators to keep the city open. There's also some question as to just when and where the federal government will commit assets since Ike has proven to be a difficult storm to project. It was supposed to move up the Keys first, then instead it was supposed to hit the northern coast of Cuba. Instead, it cut directly across the island late Sunday and is now below Cuba.
SOLDIER--
So what are the odds that Ike will hit New Orleans?
HECTOR
You asking me, the weather guru?
SOLDIER
Think about it, we've made all the wrong moves thus far trying to anticipate landfall. And everybody is trying to outguess Mother Nature. But the general consensus is that it won't be New Orleans. We have a news website, check the recent visitors and see where most of the traffic is coming from.
HECTOR goes over to a PC on the table, brings up the Recon News website statistics analyzer, looks over the stats for the past few days.
SOLDIER
Do a grid and run the visits from New Orleans as opposed to, say, Miami/Key West and Houston. Let's get what the collective instinct of the people output onto a chart.
HECTOR brings up a spreadsheet, begins to tally in the visitor stats.
HECTOR
I'm going to break it down even further by business, government agency and just regular server from the surfer at home on a personal computer.
A few minutes later, HECTOR has compiled some impressive data.
HECTOR
Looks like we're pulling more traffic from Houston than from New Orleans on the business side and more from the school districts in Louisiana.
HECTOR hands several printed out spreadsheets to SOLDIER, he looks them over.
SOLDIER
I expected that. It seems that if there was a doubt as to where to place the relief assets, then it would be wise to get power generating equipment in and around necessary facilities like oil refineries and gas stations. And the kids can't miss a day of school, so if there's contraflow, some kind of arrangement should be made so teach can keep class up and running at the evac shelter.
HECTOR
Right. And look at the problems that came up over at the wastewater plants. All of those kinds of places need to be targeted for emergency gear.
SOLDIER
Talk about hunches, Houston is far more vulnerable than New Orleans, so...
HECTOR
So tell me it ain't true, Soldier. We're not going to Houston.
SOLDIER grins, takes data out onto patio and listens as BUSINESSMEN ponder their course of action out on the street.
THE END--
CONE OF ERROR - 09/24/08 @ 13:43
Cone of Error----
WGA west reg.# xxxxxx
FADE IN:
EXT. Johnson Space Center, Houston. Van pulls to a stop in massive parking lot at the space center. Recon News reporters TIM SOLDIER and HECTOR LOPEZ, having left New Orleans the day before, have arrived at the space center to utilize the facility's vast data tracking capability.
INT. Control room somewhere in the space center. HECTOR and SOLDIER sit at large console surrounded by a number of large flatscreens; some show radar, others show satellite imagery, still others show topographical maps of the Gulf of Mexico including Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern Gulf Coast of the United States.
HECTOR
Here Tim, this is what I'm getting at. Look at the way Hurricane Ike did a left turn and raced across Cuba in combination with the facts that the moon was in Scorpio along with Jupiter and the low tides along the north coast of Cuba.
SOLDIER
I'm certainly glad NASA loaned us this facility, we'd be over in the French Quarter in New Orleans until next hurricane season still trying to figure out Ike.
HECTOR
You and me both. From here it's a no brainer where Ike is going next. There's a lot of warm water at its current position and it doesn't make sense that the hurricane will move into the shallow water of the Isla de Pinos. High tide will be prevalent for another day about the time the hurricane reaches the southwest tip of Cuba.
SOLDIER
So what's it do, make another left turn?
HECTOR
It pretty much can't do anything else. It's weak enough to avoid the higher topography there and get pulled back out into the deepwater just south of the Isla de Pinos.
SOLDIER (pointing to water current configuration on flatscreen)
What are all these arrows about.
HECTOR
That's why I wanted to come over to Houston to look this up; it's too hard to pull all of this up on our van equipment. That's what is known as the "Loop Current". It was discussed and given a name by Hofmann and Worley back in 1986; it's a combination of the Yucatan Current and the Florida Current; flows clockwise into the Gulf. And working in conjunction with what is also known as the "Cuban Vortex", it'll take a hurricane and pitch it into the Gulf like a Barry Zito curve ball.
SOLDIER
So that tells us we can expect it to come into the Gulf sooner than expected.
HECTOR
Barry's curve ball ain't known for speed but it sure has some angular momentum. Just ask some of those Astros who've tried to hit it.
AIDE arrives in control room with some glasses and a pitcher full of icewater.
HECTOR takes pitcher of icewater, examines it.
HECTOR
Would you look at all of the ice in this pitcher. What they'd do to have that over at Pat O'Brien's in New Orleans.
HECTOR pours glasses full of water, spilling ice in the process, hands a full glass to SOLDIER.
SOLDIER examines an article on one of the screens, reads it aloud.
SOLDIER
"The Loop Current and its eddies may be detected by measuring sea surface level. Sea surface level of both the Eddies and the Loop on September 21, 2005 was up to 60 cm (24 in) higher than surrounding water, indicating a deep area of warm water beneath them. On that day, Hurricane Rita passed over the Loop current and intensified into a Category 5 storm with the help of the warm water."
HECTOR pulls up a map of Hurricane Rita's path.
HECTOR
Not much similarity here. Rita passed through the Florida Straits before going on into Texas and Louisiana.
SOLDIER
So when there's vast pools of deep warm water, the sea surface height is higher than the cooler areas around it and it's measured in centimeters.
AIDE
I might be able to help here.
AIDE takes a seat, types in some search data on the keyboard, a series of various readouts and altimetry images of the Gulf of Mexico appear.
AIDE
Here we have the Ssalto/Duacs multimission altimeter product data and you can see the water temperature gradient along the Loop just west of Cuba. Red indicates warmer water and the anomalies and eddies associated with it; the data comes in from Jason-1, T/P, Envisat, GFO, ERS-1 & 2 and even Geosat.
AIDE types in a few more searches and commands and all the flatscreens light up with a variety of sea level altimetry readings related to recent significant weather systems.
AIDE
Lately, the doomsday people are blaming it all on global warming but there is enough data to show it's a periodic cycle and if you really wanted to track it; the number of variables would extend from sunspots to cosmic ray influx from distant galaxies; or from the makeup of the water itself and how all these currents and eddies interact.
HECTOR
So how accurate are all these so-called weather models?
AIDE
That can depend on a number of things. If they're, for instance, atmosphere based or water based. For that matter, some models work better for particular systems while others predict better for others. The Katrina model that was the most accurate happened to be one out of the United Kingdom, a longshot that proved to be correct but not before it was too late.
SOLDIER
Well that makes sense. It all comes down to the hardware, software, the data set and the actual philosophy behind weather system prediction.
AIDE
Certainly, the UK model was probably initially based on English Channel and North Sea data and expanded globally as the hardware and software improved.
SOLDIER
Well, I've crossed the Channel more than once and the weather there can change in a heartbeat. I can just imagine how tough it must be in other areas like the Mediterranean where storms appear on the horizon in the blink of an eye.
HECTOR
So where does that leave us; we came all the way over to Houston to find out that the path of the hurricane is a cone and nothing more, until it hits somewhere?
AIDE
A better way to look at it is that it will make landfall somewhere near where you least expect it and very close to where you don't want it to hit.
SOLDIER
For Ike, that would be from Houston to New Orleans.
AIDE
Precisely.
HECTOR examines a buoy distribution map of the Gulf of Mexico.
HECTOR
Well there's just not enough buoys where they need to be, south of Cuba. Most of them are concentrated along the Florida coastline.
EXT. Key West, nightfall. Sloppy Joe's Bar. Standing room only at the bar and tables are full, everybody celebrates near miss from Hurricane Ike as reporters on TV's cover the storm. At a corner table are HECTOR and SOLDIER.
HECTOR
I don't know why you were in such a hurry to come back to Key West, Tim. Are you expecting Hemingway to walk in here tonight? And I didn't like the idea of flying in from Houston. If the hurricane hits there, it will be tough to get back in to where the newsvan is parked.
SOLDIER
Something that NASA aide said at the space center yesterday bothers me. That part about a hurricane making landfall somewhere between where it's least expected and where nobody wants it. That initial cone of error had Ike hitting Key West, way back a few days ago when it was still east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Now, today, it's about seven times closer to Key West than it was then and the cone of error points it toward Houston. That just doesn't make any sense at all.
HECTOR (sipping a drink)
Depends on how you interpret the forecast models and which ones are based on hindcast.
SOLDIER
Forecast, hindcast; just so much stormspin that breaks down as soon as the hurricane does what you don't expect it to do. Hurricane Ike has managed to hit every landmass out in the Caribbean and twice over Cuba. The next nearest landmass is Florida.
HECTOR
I'm not too keen on the reliability of any storm modelling when the season runs late and there's data overload. All the more reason for us to turn around and get out of the Keys before the unexpected happens here.
At the entrance of Sloppy Joe's, ROSA VASQUEZ enters, proceeds to table.
HECTOR
Rosa, what are you doing here?
ROSA (taking a seat)
Well I figured if you two weren't at Pat O'Brien's guzzling hurricanes, you'd be over here in Key West. The big question is, what are you doing here?
HECTOR
Soldier has some cockeyed notion that Ike will retrogress back onto its original cone of error and hit Key West from the western approach.
ROSA
Well that's a novel concept, and what school of meteorology did you graduate from, Tim, the Phoenix Online University?
SOLDIER
Would you like a drink?
ROSA
Thanks, I'll take a pina colada.
SOLDIER gets up, maneuvers through crowd to bar where LOCALS huddle around TV screen as WEATHER EXPERTS discuss hurricane forecasting.
EXPERT#1 (on TV screen)
Certainly, the European models might seem to have an edge on the others; but it may be due to the ratio of forecast to hindcast components used in the analysis.
EXPERT#2 (on TV screen)
I'm not so certain. I think that any system will tend toward entropy and loss of consistency the longer it is employed, and hurricane forecast modelling should be no exception.
LOCAL#1 (intoxicated at the bar )
Wassa "enterppy"?
LOCAL#2 (drinking at the bar)
The unavailability of a system to do work. The description fits you perfectly.
LOCALS laugh and continue to watch the experts.
EXPERT#1
The accuracy of any model is only as good as the statistics that formulate the probability equations that drive the model.
EXPERT#2
Yes, and most important, on the willingness of the observer to accept the fact that the models may be of no use at all when the system doen't meet the standards.
EXPERT#1
So the longer the forecast models stay in place as to the cone of error for Hurricane Ike, the greater the probability that the models will fail.
EXPERT#2
I can agree with that if we consider the macroscopic components to be moving toward a state of equilibrium; in other words, the dynamics of the storm losing the ability to be quantified through forecast modelling.
SOLDIER takes the drinks from the bar and returns to the table, hands ROSA her drink.
ROSA (sips drink)
The reason I came down here was to let you know that Colonel Rodriguez would like a meeting with you, Tim.
SOLDIER
I take it he's still in New Orleans?.
ROSA
Well, not exactly. I don't know if you've heard but the Cuban government has refused hurricane relief assistance from the United States.
SOLDIER
Yes, I'm aware of that. So what has that got to do with Rodriguez?
HECTOR (grinning)
Here it comes!
ROSA
The Colonel has taken it upon himself to accept an offer from the State Department to deliver supplies and cash to the Cuban people.
SOLDIER
In spite of what Havana has to say about it?
ROSA
Havana doesn't know about it.
SOLDIER
So what's that got to do with me?
HECTOR
Here it comes!
ROSA
Hector, will you please SHUT UP! Colonel Rodriguez is currently just off Key West in international waters in an unflagged cargo vessel. The Captain and crew of that vessel want an American non-government on board to act as observer in case something happens.
HECTOR
And Rodriguez has volunteered Soldier.
ROSA
Something like that.
SOLDIER.
The Colonel wants me to moniter a pirate vessel full of contraband and unmarked American currency as we sail undetected into hostile Cuban waters.
HECTOR
Something like that.
ROSA
Hector, will you please SHUT UP! Come on, Tim Soldier, what a great story it will make, your helping all those Cuban hurricane victims.
SOLDIER
I especially like the part where me and Rodriguez are executed by a Cuban firing squad...OK, OK, I'll do it. Hector, you take Rosa to Houston, get the van set up for some ship-to-shore communication, I'll keep you updated on the co-ordinates. Now Rosa, where do I connect with Rodriguez?
THE END--
WGA west reg.# xxxxxx
FADE IN:
EXT. Johnson Space Center, Houston. Van pulls to a stop in massive parking lot at the space center. Recon News reporters TIM SOLDIER and HECTOR LOPEZ, having left New Orleans the day before, have arrived at the space center to utilize the facility's vast data tracking capability.
INT. Control room somewhere in the space center. HECTOR and SOLDIER sit at large console surrounded by a number of large flatscreens; some show radar, others show satellite imagery, still others show topographical maps of the Gulf of Mexico including Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern Gulf Coast of the United States.
HECTOR
Here Tim, this is what I'm getting at. Look at the way Hurricane Ike did a left turn and raced across Cuba in combination with the facts that the moon was in Scorpio along with Jupiter and the low tides along the north coast of Cuba.
SOLDIER
I'm certainly glad NASA loaned us this facility, we'd be over in the French Quarter in New Orleans until next hurricane season still trying to figure out Ike.
HECTOR
You and me both. From here it's a no brainer where Ike is going next. There's a lot of warm water at its current position and it doesn't make sense that the hurricane will move into the shallow water of the Isla de Pinos. High tide will be prevalent for another day about the time the hurricane reaches the southwest tip of Cuba.
SOLDIER
So what's it do, make another left turn?
HECTOR
It pretty much can't do anything else. It's weak enough to avoid the higher topography there and get pulled back out into the deepwater just south of the Isla de Pinos.
SOLDIER (pointing to water current configuration on flatscreen)
What are all these arrows about.
HECTOR
That's why I wanted to come over to Houston to look this up; it's too hard to pull all of this up on our van equipment. That's what is known as the "Loop Current". It was discussed and given a name by Hofmann and Worley back in 1986; it's a combination of the Yucatan Current and the Florida Current; flows clockwise into the Gulf. And working in conjunction with what is also known as the "Cuban Vortex", it'll take a hurricane and pitch it into the Gulf like a Barry Zito curve ball.
SOLDIER
So that tells us we can expect it to come into the Gulf sooner than expected.
HECTOR
Barry's curve ball ain't known for speed but it sure has some angular momentum. Just ask some of those Astros who've tried to hit it.
AIDE arrives in control room with some glasses and a pitcher full of icewater.
HECTOR takes pitcher of icewater, examines it.
HECTOR
Would you look at all of the ice in this pitcher. What they'd do to have that over at Pat O'Brien's in New Orleans.
HECTOR pours glasses full of water, spilling ice in the process, hands a full glass to SOLDIER.
SOLDIER examines an article on one of the screens, reads it aloud.
SOLDIER
"The Loop Current and its eddies may be detected by measuring sea surface level. Sea surface level of both the Eddies and the Loop on September 21, 2005 was up to 60 cm (24 in) higher than surrounding water, indicating a deep area of warm water beneath them. On that day, Hurricane Rita passed over the Loop current and intensified into a Category 5 storm with the help of the warm water."
HECTOR pulls up a map of Hurricane Rita's path.
HECTOR
Not much similarity here. Rita passed through the Florida Straits before going on into Texas and Louisiana.
SOLDIER
So when there's vast pools of deep warm water, the sea surface height is higher than the cooler areas around it and it's measured in centimeters.
AIDE
I might be able to help here.
AIDE takes a seat, types in some search data on the keyboard, a series of various readouts and altimetry images of the Gulf of Mexico appear.
AIDE
Here we have the Ssalto/Duacs multimission altimeter product data and you can see the water temperature gradient along the Loop just west of Cuba. Red indicates warmer water and the anomalies and eddies associated with it; the data comes in from Jason-1, T/P, Envisat, GFO, ERS-1 & 2 and even Geosat.
AIDE types in a few more searches and commands and all the flatscreens light up with a variety of sea level altimetry readings related to recent significant weather systems.
AIDE
Lately, the doomsday people are blaming it all on global warming but there is enough data to show it's a periodic cycle and if you really wanted to track it; the number of variables would extend from sunspots to cosmic ray influx from distant galaxies; or from the makeup of the water itself and how all these currents and eddies interact.
HECTOR
So how accurate are all these so-called weather models?
AIDE
That can depend on a number of things. If they're, for instance, atmosphere based or water based. For that matter, some models work better for particular systems while others predict better for others. The Katrina model that was the most accurate happened to be one out of the United Kingdom, a longshot that proved to be correct but not before it was too late.
SOLDIER
Well that makes sense. It all comes down to the hardware, software, the data set and the actual philosophy behind weather system prediction.
AIDE
Certainly, the UK model was probably initially based on English Channel and North Sea data and expanded globally as the hardware and software improved.
SOLDIER
Well, I've crossed the Channel more than once and the weather there can change in a heartbeat. I can just imagine how tough it must be in other areas like the Mediterranean where storms appear on the horizon in the blink of an eye.
HECTOR
So where does that leave us; we came all the way over to Houston to find out that the path of the hurricane is a cone and nothing more, until it hits somewhere?
AIDE
A better way to look at it is that it will make landfall somewhere near where you least expect it and very close to where you don't want it to hit.
SOLDIER
For Ike, that would be from Houston to New Orleans.
AIDE
Precisely.
HECTOR examines a buoy distribution map of the Gulf of Mexico.
HECTOR
Well there's just not enough buoys where they need to be, south of Cuba. Most of them are concentrated along the Florida coastline.
EXT. Key West, nightfall. Sloppy Joe's Bar. Standing room only at the bar and tables are full, everybody celebrates near miss from Hurricane Ike as reporters on TV's cover the storm. At a corner table are HECTOR and SOLDIER.
HECTOR
I don't know why you were in such a hurry to come back to Key West, Tim. Are you expecting Hemingway to walk in here tonight? And I didn't like the idea of flying in from Houston. If the hurricane hits there, it will be tough to get back in to where the newsvan is parked.
SOLDIER
Something that NASA aide said at the space center yesterday bothers me. That part about a hurricane making landfall somewhere between where it's least expected and where nobody wants it. That initial cone of error had Ike hitting Key West, way back a few days ago when it was still east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Now, today, it's about seven times closer to Key West than it was then and the cone of error points it toward Houston. That just doesn't make any sense at all.
HECTOR (sipping a drink)
Depends on how you interpret the forecast models and which ones are based on hindcast.
SOLDIER
Forecast, hindcast; just so much stormspin that breaks down as soon as the hurricane does what you don't expect it to do. Hurricane Ike has managed to hit every landmass out in the Caribbean and twice over Cuba. The next nearest landmass is Florida.
HECTOR
I'm not too keen on the reliability of any storm modelling when the season runs late and there's data overload. All the more reason for us to turn around and get out of the Keys before the unexpected happens here.
At the entrance of Sloppy Joe's, ROSA VASQUEZ enters, proceeds to table.
HECTOR
Rosa, what are you doing here?
ROSA (taking a seat)
Well I figured if you two weren't at Pat O'Brien's guzzling hurricanes, you'd be over here in Key West. The big question is, what are you doing here?
HECTOR
Soldier has some cockeyed notion that Ike will retrogress back onto its original cone of error and hit Key West from the western approach.
ROSA
Well that's a novel concept, and what school of meteorology did you graduate from, Tim, the Phoenix Online University?
SOLDIER
Would you like a drink?
ROSA
Thanks, I'll take a pina colada.
SOLDIER gets up, maneuvers through crowd to bar where LOCALS huddle around TV screen as WEATHER EXPERTS discuss hurricane forecasting.
EXPERT#1 (on TV screen)
Certainly, the European models might seem to have an edge on the others; but it may be due to the ratio of forecast to hindcast components used in the analysis.
EXPERT#2 (on TV screen)
I'm not so certain. I think that any system will tend toward entropy and loss of consistency the longer it is employed, and hurricane forecast modelling should be no exception.
LOCAL#1 (intoxicated at the bar )
Wassa "enterppy"?
LOCAL#2 (drinking at the bar)
The unavailability of a system to do work. The description fits you perfectly.
LOCALS laugh and continue to watch the experts.
EXPERT#1
The accuracy of any model is only as good as the statistics that formulate the probability equations that drive the model.
EXPERT#2
Yes, and most important, on the willingness of the observer to accept the fact that the models may be of no use at all when the system doen't meet the standards.
EXPERT#1
So the longer the forecast models stay in place as to the cone of error for Hurricane Ike, the greater the probability that the models will fail.
EXPERT#2
I can agree with that if we consider the macroscopic components to be moving toward a state of equilibrium; in other words, the dynamics of the storm losing the ability to be quantified through forecast modelling.
SOLDIER takes the drinks from the bar and returns to the table, hands ROSA her drink.
ROSA (sips drink)
The reason I came down here was to let you know that Colonel Rodriguez would like a meeting with you, Tim.
SOLDIER
I take it he's still in New Orleans?.
ROSA
Well, not exactly. I don't know if you've heard but the Cuban government has refused hurricane relief assistance from the United States.
SOLDIER
Yes, I'm aware of that. So what has that got to do with Rodriguez?
HECTOR (grinning)
Here it comes!
ROSA
The Colonel has taken it upon himself to accept an offer from the State Department to deliver supplies and cash to the Cuban people.
SOLDIER
In spite of what Havana has to say about it?
ROSA
Havana doesn't know about it.
SOLDIER
So what's that got to do with me?
HECTOR
Here it comes!
ROSA
Hector, will you please SHUT UP! Colonel Rodriguez is currently just off Key West in international waters in an unflagged cargo vessel. The Captain and crew of that vessel want an American non-government on board to act as observer in case something happens.
HECTOR
And Rodriguez has volunteered Soldier.
ROSA
Something like that.
SOLDIER.
The Colonel wants me to moniter a pirate vessel full of contraband and unmarked American currency as we sail undetected into hostile Cuban waters.
HECTOR
Something like that.
ROSA
Hector, will you please SHUT UP! Come on, Tim Soldier, what a great story it will make, your helping all those Cuban hurricane victims.
SOLDIER
I especially like the part where me and Rodriguez are executed by a Cuban firing squad...OK, OK, I'll do it. Hector, you take Rosa to Houston, get the van set up for some ship-to-shore communication, I'll keep you updated on the co-ordinates. Now Rosa, where do I connect with Rodriguez?
THE END--
